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Technical analysis and historical data analysis

Despite the ever growing complexity that surrounds the financial markets, a surprising number of traders still fail to recognize the subtle differences between individual platforms and products. One of the most important facts you will ever learn about financial trading is that not all markets have been created equal, with the result that each boast their own unique levels of risk, reward, liquidity and leverage. This is an extremely important consideration, as it dictates that your trading strategy and the trading charts that you use must be compatible with the market that operate within.

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Wouldn't it be great to pick a good invesment and let money work for you without any further efforts for years?

We have created a new website dedicated to long term investments which is called 5yearcharts.com.

Companies come and go but there are investments that are always going to valueable - so as first we decided to take a closer look on gold's 5 year charts and the long term charts of silver.

 

The site NSEIndia.com has changed recently.

You can still download free market data from NSEIndia.com, but file format has changed.

 

Good statistics is the key to calendar effects

Many investments show calendar effects like as Santa Claus Rally, January effect, Halloween indicator, October effect. Some of them may be just a coincidences but a lot of them are statistically significant.

Having checked monthly trends of many cases we must say that these calendar effects are not equally strong in the case of each investment. Some of them are very strong (check out the chart below), others may be weaker or completely missing. One can also discover important seasonal tendencies other than the effects mentioned above, regarless on talking about stock market, commodities, forex pairs, indices or mutual funds / ETFs.

Since these effects vary with investments it is better to analyze their effect for each investment separately. This analysis can be made e.g.: per month in a chart like below:

 

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There's more to the market data than you think!

Market data can be analyzed in many ways to support investment decisions

4 of these methods were quite painful and complicated to carry out (until Chartoasis Sesame software came) though they could help a lot to make better investments.








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Creating the monthly statistics chart of a stock, a mutual fund or a currency pair can be used to highlight the effect of "Santa Claus Rally".

Preparing it is not a rocket science today. With Chartoasis Sesame it takes only 3 simple steps!

 

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People often ask in each December if Santa Claus Rally exists at all? Besides some disappointed people tell that there is no Santa Claus Rally at all.
Let's see a some statistics about it instead of rumors!

 

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Creating the monthly statistics chart of a stock, a mutual fund or a currency pair can be used to highlight the effect of "Santa Claus Rally", "January effect" or "Sell in May and go away".

Preparing it is not a rocket science today. With Chartoasis Sesame it takes only 3 simple steps!

 

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2 new columns were added to the NSE India data file format. It was not a major change and Chartoasis.com's free stock analizer software is now prepared to load such data. Thanks for one of our visitors who notified us that there is a problem loading data files.

Please do not hesitate to contact us in case of problems related to the chart application.

 

The ?USD JPY? currency pair, second only to the ?EUR USD? pair in trading volume, has been on a lengthy strengthening move over that past eighteen months, despite national disasters to the contrary. Known favorably as a base currency for the popular ?carry trade? amongst forex traders, The Yen has moved into a position of steady strength while its economy has been plagued with low growth for nearly two decades.

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The ?AUD USD? currency pair continues to astound the most avid observers of historical exchange rates in the world of forex. One must go back thirty years to find rates comparable to today?s market valuations, and since the year 2000, the Aussie Dollar has more than doubled in value to reach today?s rate. Often viewed as a barometer of global growth, it closely correlates with the demand for commodities and has appreciated greatly due the success of emerging markets in Asia.

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We have created an infographic about calendar effects:
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Experts at the London Stock Exchange believe that a huge proportion of trading is now done using algorithms. In some markets, it?s estimated to be around 80 percent of trading volumes, which means that it?s become a huge part of financial trading. Software that can recognise patterns and make the appropriate trades is now in very high demand, with many people willing to pay large sums of money for the technology. This is prevalent across the board, with stocks, currency and commodities all involved. The question then, is how effective is this method of trading, and is it better than manual chart observation?

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Chartoasis.com has started a new site about historical data, www.historicaldatadirectory.com . We will collect all of our knowledge about historical there.

 

Technological evolution does not avoid investment tools, either. They improve continuously, new tools appear, old ones become more sophisticated and cheaper so it worths to have a look at new ones.

1. Charts & chart softwares

The largest evolution of investment tools can be observed in the area of chart softwares. The range of provided services became wider, and a lot of old services ara available for free today.

 

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Almost everybody is asking on the Wall Street in each December if there will be a Santa Claus Rally.

Let's see the chances of having a Santa Claus Rally this year, based on statistics!

A little bit about statistics...

One can prepare statistics for Santa Claus Rally in many ways. As I see, people do not even agree on when it begins or when it ends.

I wanted to know how often prices rise between the beginning and the end of December and how much the average increase is. You can see an example below.

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Lot?s of rumors are told about Santa Claus Rally. Significantly less exact charts can be seen about it, though a good chart could make clear a lot of things.

What does a Santa Claus Rally chart have to be like?

Having read a lot of articles about Santa Claus Rally I realized that people do not really agree on when it begins and when it ends. Somebody says it is just the beginning of the January effect, others tell it may begin in November or it is just the couple days at the end of the year.

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For a user's request we have implemented forex data support in Chartoasis Sesame.

Using Sesame for forex is not a bad idea: by using monthly statistics you can identify months for some currency pairs where the chance of going up is 3 times more than going down!

The source of forex data is Stooq.com. You can find a detailed guide on how to dowload data from Stooq here.

From today you can use monthly statistics, performance comparison and long term performance analysis for currency pairs, too.

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NSE Inida has changed the history data file format recently. It was not a major change but Chartoasis.com's free stock analizer software was not prepared to load these files by default. We have corrected the problem on 2011-12-11.

Hopefully users from India will find a great use of our chart application for a long time
Please do not hesitate to contact us in case of problems related to the chart application. Thanks to a user email we detected the change of file format a lot earlier!

We also updated our help document for downloading market date from NSEIndia.com.

 

The ?GBP USD? currency pair has correlated almost exactly with the trending behavior of its rival, the ?EUR USD?, over the past twelve months. Although the United Kingdom is independent from Europe, its banks still have many European bond securities on their respective balance sheets and export trade relationships are also entwined enough to provide additional linkage in the Pound?s tendencies versus the Euro. Favorable economic data has buoyed the Pound of late, and data releases to come may reinforce the current positive moves.

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The ?EUR USD? currency pair has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past year, buffeted by the hope that Western economies would somehow find the right formula for dealing with their respective debt loads and deficits while producing domestic growth worthy of recognition. Emerging markets have dominated the positive side of economic statistics for far too long, but the largest traded pair in the forex markets continues to reign supreme, as the combined strength of the United States and Europe economies still dwarfs all contenders.

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