Experts at the London Stock Exchange believe that a huge proportion of trading is now done using algorithms. In some markets, it’s estimated to be around 80 percent of trading volumes, which means that it’s become a huge part of financial trading. Software that can recognise patterns and make the appropriate trades is now in very high demand, with many people willing to pay large sums of money for the technology. This is prevalent across the board, with stocks, currency and commodities all involved. The question then, is how effective is this method of trading, and is it better than manual chart observation?
Good statistics is the key to calendar effects
Many investments show calendar effects like as Santa Claus Rally, January effect, Halloween indicator, October effect. Some of them may be just a coincidences but a lot of them are statistically significant.
Having checked monthly trends of many cases we must say that these calendar effects are not equally strong in the case of each investment. Some of them are very strong (check out the chart below), others may be weaker or completely missing. One can also discover important seasonal tendencies other than the effects mentioned above, regarless on talking about stock market, commodities, forex pairs, indices or mutual funds / ETFs.
Since these effects vary with investments it is better to analyze their effect for each investment separately. This analysis can be made e.g.: per month in a chart like below:
- Step 2: Download Data
- Step 3: Data Downloaded: What’s next?
As a first step the page of the currency pair has to be located on Stooq.com. (It is a Polish site, but do not worry, not speaking Polish will not be a problem if you use this guide.)